’Global Warming Misconceptions - View the table of contents!

Governments this year have ramped up their global warming propaganda, but in truth, just how certain is global warming. In the process of preparing a consulting report, we undertook some research and were startled by government policy. We will show that the propaganda being financed by government is shamelessly creating hysteria for the sake of political expediency.

Global Warming Misconceptions - Download the table of contents or buy this report at our online store for just $US9.95.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Where is the climate change consensus?

I want to quote another sample of poor scientific reporting from Google Answers about the significance of 'peer reviewed' climate change articles posted in scientific journals. A person asked the following question:
"I am interested in learning about scientists who have have completed studies about global warming. Of those that submit to peer review, what percentage of them show that global warming is both (a) man-made and (b) expected to have a severe negative impact to mankind?
The reason that I ask is that a relative told me she believed it was about 99% of scientists believed that global warming was real and caused by humans...and that the remaining 1% were the fringe idiots. And, although i know nothing about the subject, her number seemed too high".
The response was:
"That hypothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abstracts, published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and listed in the ISI database with the keywords "climate change" (9).
The 928 papers were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position. Admittedly, authors evaluating impacts, developing methods, or studying paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that point"... Source: www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686.
There are several problems with this response that ought to be evident to any critical thinking scientists. These include:
1. Science is not a popularity contest. I would suggest just a fraction of scientists are critical thinkers, and most are publicly-funded academics, so they have great sympathy for the nanny state, so there is a plausible professional bias emerging because of their implied values.
2. The pollster postulated a 'false alternative' by implying that there was sufficient evidence to take a valid position on climate change. i.e. There might be 10,000 scientific researchers who would not compromise their integrity by 'shooting from the hip' by rendering scientific assertions when there was inadequate research to support either hypothesis....that the climate is warming because of humanity or not, and how significant it is. The implication is that the 'politically hysterical' scientists who are friends with Al Gore et al are the ones who attract all the media, because we all know the media loves a good story.

Then you get the community concerned, environmentalists who have a tendency towards the tragic, and school kids are all being mobilised to support an issue for which there is inadequate research to support either hypothesis. This is the state of our stupid political system. This is a source of great content for the media, and of course unthinking politicians respond in kind. See a previous article which showed Rob Oakshotte, an MP in the Australian parliament, attending a seminar by an environmentalist (i.e. not a scientist) on population control. That MP holds the balance of power in the Australian parliament. Do you think he paid a visit to some Climate Change skeptic at James Cook University? I doubt it. I agree, they are hard to find when a contrary position is so 'politically unpopular' and the media will not publish your story because anyone with a contrary opinion is considered a 'nutter' or a 'fringe idiot'.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Scientific journalism reaches a new low

Does science get any more ridiculous than science reporting. We live in a world where science is considered a political football, or a popularity contest. Science is based on evidence and testing of hypotheses. It it not a majority vote, and judging from this article in the Guardian, it is not a decision flung from one team to another depending on the daily balance of power.
Read this article, as journalism doesn't get any more pathetic. The author seems to believe that because a scientists has shifted from the Climate Skeptics to Climate Sensationalists, that this marks a turning point in the debate.
Before it was enough that a group of IPCC scientists believed that global warming is man-made. That was sufficient to call it a day and waste billions of dollars on remedial measures. Now, we are down to one guys opinion.
One needs to appreciate that not all scientists are of equal credibility. Some are more salesmen than researchers. Some are critical thinkers, whilst others are just plan old, unaccountable academics with little accountability for what they produce. They will give a degree to anyone these days. Everyone gets a "C" in most universities, and those mediocrities eventually end up in academia because they can get unconditional love and a safe salary package. That is the quality of the army fighting for global warming....and with their sense of life, they are able 'bedfellows' for political bureaucrats and ministerial meddlers.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Climate change is not recession-proof

A NZ Herald survey has shown that NZ's are growing increasing sceptical of the climate change assertions - that humans are driving the planet towards a run-away greenhouse effect. The fact that there is any human impact does not even mean that there need even be a runaway effect because CO2 is a fertiliser for plants, not a pollutant. The human population growth rate is declining with increasing prosperity, and our consumption patterns are also set to change.
People also ought to ponder why consumption rates are so high. There is a 'human values' component to this issue which people don't even challenge. The ethics involved are startling because we are being asked to embrace the save ethical system as Adolf Hitler. In the 1930s Adolf Hitler was a huge exponent of animal rights. You can argue that he was not so much a great proponent of animals. I would suggest elevating animal rights was his way of undermining human rights. The same can be said of the environment. This issue is not about protecting humanity from climate change, otherwise we would simply use common law to mount a class action against companies based on the 'evidence'. The reason why we are being 'guilt-induced' with pseudo-science from politically-motivated, uncritical thinking academics, is that these people have a tragic sense of life, and they are so loathing of humanity, they would find a crisis if they were paid to. Governments of course want a 'legislated' solution so they can control the process. A tax is not going to do anything because emitters can merely pass on the costs to consumers. It reduces wealth by funding a lot of unnecessary remedial measures. Unnecessary because there is no credible evidence that humanity is having a discernible impact on the climate.
This survey shows that most people have downgraded the importance of climate change. This is not surprising because it is a recession. The survey however also shows that the number of people who believe no climate change problem exists has increased from 17.5% to 19.3% in the last year. This might be because they repudiate the trumped up evidence, or it might be because they want to cynically repudiate climate change to allay any guilt resulting from their conflicting values. i.e. their short term economic values vs their long term, conceptual moral values. I'm not suggesting that concepts are purely a long term tool, but rather that people are inclined to take concrete steps to resolve concrete problems having already developed a long range plan.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Saturday, September 18, 2010

What if global warming cause is anthropogenic?

Here is an interesting question - I did not read about it on Political Forum.com, but I will post a response to it:

The fact is that if there was a anthropogenic cause for global warming it would not make a difference because any 'negative externality' has to be established on the basis that the trend is destined to cause harm to specific individuals. The fact that the process of change takes so long and change is occurring anyway tends to underpin any such consideration.
An argument could also be made that CO2 is a fertiliser to plants, and that enrichening the atmosphere will eventually result in stimulated plant growth, and higher temperatures would result in more evaporation, cloud formation and precipitation, resulting in greater oxidation (i.e. usually by carbolic acid, i.e. CO2) and more reflection of UV back into space.

The greatest obstacle to the current climate change debate is the lack of a compelling 'causation' for it. I would however suggest solar flares is far more credible as a cause.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Sunday, August 8, 2010

A proud climate change denier

Denying climate change is a matter of pride to those who embrace the idea of 'minimal anthropogenic responsibility for climate change'. Their argument fundamentally rest on the premise that climate change is a natural phenomena; that there is nothing unusual about the current fluctuations in the Earth's climate, and that whilst there might come a time when humanity poses a threat to the climate, the facts are not currently on the side of politically-motivated scientists and liberal media commentators.
The reasons why I do not support such assertions are:
1. Many such assertions have proven false in the past. i.e. Dire warnings of asteroid impacts, ice ages, so climate change needs to be treated with some suspicion.
2. Many scientists and journalists base the 'irrefutability' of the evidence - not on science - but the popularity of the hypothesis among scientists. Its not even all scientists, but that does not even matter. Its a clan of politically-motivated scientists. The problem with this is that science is a question for decade, not opinion polls. This is particularly important when you consider that probably only 3-5% of scientists are critical thinkers. The vast majority will perform science which will not contribute to the world. i.e. They are malfunctioning bureaucrats supported by similarly hopeless tenured professors who helped them get a PhD because they felt sorry for them, and they make them look good. That is the more typical climate for 'scientific advancement' in the more academic universities, and is unquestionably better in the more applied unversities. They are not all useless.

Now let us turn our attention to the journalist who incited this article - Ross Gittins, the Economics Editor of the Sydney Morning Herald with his 'beat up' on education. i.e. 'Beat a stick and they will come'. He draws an analogy in his story of climate change deniers. Gittins says:
"That's why climate change-denying scientists get a degree of media publicity out of proportion to the relevance of their qualifications or how representative they are of scientific opinion".
Actually the amount of media recognition given to 'climate change deniers' is pitifully small. Despite that a lot of people in the community remain suspicious or cynical about such claims. Is it because it has always has a political edge, because the evidence does not stack up, because the alternative hypothesis of solar flare variations have yet to be fully investigated (despite offering good correlation).
How is it that this journalist - who is an economist - can be so sure that the science stacks up if they have no training in climatology. After all the whole basis for his argument is that 'deniers' are unqualified. He also implies that science ought to be a media contest, so there is a great lack of intelligence in his assertion.
I guess he is one of the economists who think all people are rational so the media is very effective at determining the truth of arguments. Well, the profession of economics is in disrepute, and economists of this calibre are clearly to blame.
Scientific trials by media are not the way science ought to be conducted. There is a lot of bad science around, and it is being used by politicians to adopt a broader-based tax on energy. Of course they dare not do that if it cripples the economy...but don't give them that power.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

I have started a debate on climate change at the Liberal Democratic Party website which you might like to follow. My response to their discussion is:
I think you drift with the tide on these issues...you present reasons why their arguments are flawed to the extent that you can, as empirical evidence is involved. It is actually not so hard because there are scientists out their who pose a different picture. More importantly, H2O is a more important greenhouse gas than CO2. Hotter mean temperatures could only result in greater average humidity. CO2 is a fertiliser, so it could only promote plant growth. The Carboniferous and Permian were coal-depositional periods for a reason.
They only accurately started investigating solar flares as a cause in 2005, and evidence to date suggests excellent correlation.

Daily I find misleading arguments in the press. Of course all this debate serves the collectivist. This is not science. You don't maintain a loyalty to scientists, you maintain it to the facts of reality. Do you blindly accept your doctor? No. You keep getting 2nd opinions until you strike a reasonable argument.

Why not be the party who stands against a scandal, and thus gets the credit for integrity, despite one's minuscule resources. Man has some influence. It is amazing how humanity can be so arrogant and so humble in the same sentence. Arrogant because you believe humanity is no important. Certainly he is important to himself; but to the external world we are just a fleeting moment. I suggest you reflect on how much oxygen and CO2 is in the world and the plausibility of you having an impact. I actually did a calculation. You can find it on my blog on climate change at www.sheldonthinks.com. Needs revision, but the fundamental point remains the same.

Of course reducing emissions will have an impact...but it need not be the impact you want. The earth in 50 years might start cooling as we enter thouse 'more frequent' ice ages. Now, we can waste untold wealth on climate change, or we can build wealth for the future, which will develop technologies and resources to deal with 'real' threats, whether meteorites or Collectivist China. This is therefore a huge opportunity cost. And you want to surrender that debate to anti-intellectual liberals.
You can follow this debate at the LDP forum. I am Shouganai1:
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Friday, July 23, 2010

How to be a good environmentalist

We might ask what qualities it takes to be a good environmentalists? Most business people are characterised as self-serving, ambitious, materialistic and unethical, with little or no regard for the impact they have on the environment. Certainly there are plenty that way; however there are a great many who display other characteristics, which we might otherwise associate with greens. There are those business people who invest a great deal in their staff, who don't cheat on their wives, who love the outdoors, who recycle their home waste, and who are not terribly materialistic. Even the most 'greedy' businessmen are often not materialistic. They are more inclined to invest in ideas and new products, and spend their time in the factory, rather than flying around in a Lear jet or jet boating in Florida. So who is more inclined to save money? The millionaire or the welfare statists who would like their wealth dispersed among themselves?

You could rightly argue that some dedicated greens are hypocrites like I describe, and that is certainly true. Some greens participate in the 'global economy' only so long as they can save enough money to buy the latest 'green technology', which is not a product of the 'greener than thou' community, but rather a product of capitalism. i.e. These people are professing to be greens, but the ultra-efficient solar panel they want, the defense from Soviet aggression they want, will ultimately come from capitalism. For this reason you can plainly see that such greens are intellectual 'cop-outs', repressing all signs of their reliance on the environment. Such 'self reliance' on nature is an illusion which they persist in maintaining. You will not see them give up toilet paper, though you will certainly see them self-righteously proclaim the benefits of 'environmentally-sound' toilet paper, which was always a rationalisation.

Why do they not then aim their guns at advertisers, salespeople and particularly politicians with their monetary stimulus, who do more to push 'conspicuous consumption' than the business people, who merely makes what people want. This is more perplexing when you consider that they are seeking solutions from the persons (i.e. politicians) who can do more for the environment than anyone, and yet they do more to sabotage it. Why? I guess because business sabotage their arbitrary assertions. The implication is that these issues are defined not by facts, but by conflicts over issues, where people fail to see the issues. People have forgot what the real issues are.
It is the poor and middle class aspirants who are inclined to spend indulgently on dubious pleasures. They are the pleasure seekers. Business and real aspirants take pride and pleasure in pursuing some purpose. They are thus inclined to save money rather than spend. They are saving for an acquisition of some business, or to start one. Production you say is the problem. Actually its not. Its arbitrary consumption which does not relate to a broader purpose. It is indulgence. It is a lack of thinking about the broader implications of one's decisions.

Clearly it is not our career which defines us. The environmentalist is of course characterised as a deluded, uneducated, tree-hugging, emotional parasite who lives on off the wealth created by those who they disparage. The lines are clearly defined by those in the media, and certainly those people who participant in the politics of global warming are like that because they are either:
1. Large companies developing huge projects
2. Environmentalists who are determined to stop them.

There is simply no place in the media for the environmentalist who simply wants to preserve a simple life, or the business person, who engages in business not to maximise output, or to have the highest market share, but simply because he derives pride from engaging in business.

I will argue that - if the environment is to be saved - and it is inevitable that growing global population is going to place pressure on our natural environment, then it is not going to be the large companies or the desperate environmentalist who dominate the media who is going to make the difference; it is going to be the 'silent majority' somewhere in between. Not fence-sitters, simply people who do things for less dubious reasons than power and material gain. I actually think these 'silent majority' are derived from the same fundamental values, though I think they have been mislead by the academic and media assault on science.

So how does one become a good environmentalist. My suggestions are these:
1. Don't interfere with the functioning of the markets, nor support governments which do the the same thing. Why? Because efficient markets result in the best allocation of resources, and thus maximum real wealth creation. This is important so we have the capacity to deal with any problem in future.
2. Support justice - that is social regulation which facilitates market optimality, rather than those government interventions which distort or undermine wealth. This does not mean supporting projects which impact others; it means respecting facts. If BP drilling poses a threat, and there is science to support those arguments, or BP has a poor safety track record, then they ought not to be awarded a license.
3. Support reason as the standard of value: Meaning that if the protection of the environment is worthy of protection, it is good for a reason, and those reasons need to be appraised in a specific context. They are not intrinsic values, and they are not dogmas.
4. Know thyself: It sounds like a Christian proverb, however a great many people engage in activities with no conceptual appreciation for the things they do. It would better serve them to develop a coherent hierarchy of values to account for what is important to them. This will help them to see the integrity and legitimacy of what they are pursuing.
These same principles hold true for business as well as environmentalists. I would argue the pragmatic businessman is equally a threat as the passionate environmentalist. A threat why? Because they both have little respect for ideas, the interests of others, or the facts of reality. They seldom attempt to see the perspective of others. There is the rare exception. The founder of Greenpeace who has celebrated a role for nuclear power. Small business people who are typically the engines of environmentally-sound technologies, whether its technological innovations like battery technologies, or new ways of thinking about the world, as I am doing.

The greens are worried about climate change. There is good evidence to suggest its a variability is caused by sun flares rather than human impacts. Greens are worried about the population explosion. The earth's population growth rate is actually slowing as people become more prosperous. Fear governments who are trying to encourage higher birth rates and promote immigration to stimulate economic growth whilst they choke productivity in the economy. The greens lament the development of new pollution-emitting plants, in the process forcing those plants to developing countries with lower standards. The wealth they create will result in better plants. The collectivism they impose on markets will only sabotage the creators of technologies which will reduce our per capita energy demand. Look at how technology has created a paperless office in a decade. Look how video conferencing will see you work from home, or local satellite offices, if not coffee shops in the next 2 decades, saving transport costs and reducing emissions. Batteries are offering longer lives, solar collectors will offer greater absorption and higher efficiencies. Just don't sabotage the process, nor allow collectivist governments to sabotage the process.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

’Global Warming Misconceptions - View the table of contents!

Governments this year have ramped up their global warming propaganda, but in truth, just how certain is global warming. In the process of preparing a consulting report, we undertook some research and were startled by government policy. We will show that the propaganda being financed by government is shamelessly creating hysteria for the sake of political expediency.

Global Warming Misconceptions - Download the table of contents or buy this report at our online store for just $US9.95.